DALLAS – It didn’t take long after Juan Soto made sports history this week by becoming the first player with a contract worth three-quarters of a billion dollars.
In the immediate aftermath of Soto’s agreement with the New York Mets on a $765 million deal, the buzz among the rest of baseball executives and agents in the hotel lobby at the winter meetings quickly turned to what comes next.
Specifically, could the first billion-dollar player be far behind?
“It’s coming,” one agent said.
Maybe within five years, some mused.
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Elly De La Cruz Reds contract timeline
If that timeline sounds familiar to sports fans in Cincinnati, maybe it’s because of the budding superstar in the middle of the Reds infield who belongs to that free agent class.
“He’s a freak. He could be the guy,” the agent said.
Elly De La Cruz: The first billion-dollar baby in sports history?
“He’s one of the names that came up when we were talking about it,” one American League executive said.
It might sound absurd to think any player in any sport would get paid that much in one contract of any length – but perhaps no more absurd than Soto getting $105 million more than John Henry’s group paid for the entire Boston Red Sox franchise and Fenway Park in what was then a record price for a team in 2002.
“I didn’t see that happening, period,” said Dodgers manager Dave Roberts, who won a World Series 10 months after his own team made Shohei Ohtani the first $700 million player last winter. “I was very surprised.”
When will an MLB player get a $1-billion contract
What about the idea of $1 billion – with a ‘B’ – for one player?
Heck, it took until 2012 for a franchise to prove that valuable, when the Dodgers sold for just more than $2 billion – and it wasn’t until just five years ago that Forbes determined every franchise was worth at least $1 billion.
According to Forbes, the Marlins are barely worth that even now.
“I guess I would be even more surprised,” Roberts said. “I didn’t think this one was plausible.”
But here’s the thing: It may have already happened. Sort of.
One industry insider said a team actually made a $1 billion offer to a player, presumably Soto; however, that offer included substantial deferred salary (like Ohtani’s contract). Soto’s deal with the Mets includes no deferrals.
“The math does actually support it,” one former National League executive said.
MLB star contract factors
The exec said that when he and other execs in their big-market front office planned long-term extensions or targeted free agents, they started with the dollar value of wins above replacement (WAR) – which now is considered roughly $10 million per point of WAR (depending on a team’s internal formula).
“If we felt we needed to get 40 WAR to get the value of the contract, we didn’t care if we got all of it at the front half or (averaged) over the whole contract,” he said.
His new contract averages $51 million a year.
Whether that makes Soto worth the full weight of the 15-year investment, it at least suggests a way of wrapping one’s head around the enormity of the deal.
“I’m not on the hating side of it as much as a lot of other people,” the former exec said.
“And when was the first $250 million deal?” he said, referring to Alex Rodriguez’s free agent contract with the Texas Rangers 24 years ago.
“Is my house more expensive than two decades ago?” he said. “Is my car? So should player contracts.”
MLB franchise values and player contracts
And this, he said: Franchise values and industry revenues continue to rise – faster than average player salaries in that period.
So maybe the player who takes one of the most competitive, elite at-bats in the game is actually worth $765 million for 15 years?
If so, what’s that suggest about five years from now? For a five-tool shortstop like De La Cruz, who delivered 5.2 WAR at age 22?
“Now he has to give that at-bat we’re talking about,” the former exec said. “The tools are as good as it gets. But that’s not his at-bat now.”
De La Cruz already cut down on his strikeout rate since his four-month debut season of 2023 to earn an All-Star selection in 2024.
If he continues that arc, improves his fielding and makes better base-running decisions as he becomes more established in the next few seasons?
Elly De La Cruz agent, contract projection
He already has the agent to break somebody’s bank.
Scott Boras, the agent who landed Soto the contract of the century, also represents the Reds’ star. Boras already has suggested how unlikely it is that De La Cruz signs an extension with the Reds before becoming a free agent.
“Don’t even go there,” Boras said when asked the billion-dollar question.
“I would not want to put that on any player, any time, particularly when he has to perform for five years before it happens, my God.
“Good thought though.”
Could the Reds afford a billion-dollar Elly De La Cruz?
Not quite as good if you’re the Reds.
When asked how much he’d thought about De La Cruz’s free agency timeline in the context of Soto, Reds president Nick Krall paused a beat before answering.
“I’m excited that he’s on our team this year, and go from there,” he said.
Krall wouldn’t speculate on De La Cruz’s potential payday as a free agent in five years.
“He’s a great player. A superstar player,” Krall said. “And a free agent at 27.”
When it comes to somebody – anybody – getting $1 billion contract, Krall is long past being stunned by the mega-deals paid by the mega-market teams.
“Nothing would surprise me,” Krall said. “There are a lot of great players in the game. And it’s what happens.”
From a Reds perspective, a $1 billion deal for De La Cruz might provide at least some solace for what it likely would say about what the 6-foot-5 bundle of power and speed did for the Reds in the five seasons leading up to it.
MLB salary disparity for big and small market teams
Even if it underscores the growing disparity between baseball’s haves and have-nots.
“We all know our challenges,” Krall said. “You’re just doing the best you can to go through player pipelines and not be worried about outside stuff. You can’t control it, and I can’t worry about stuff I can’t control. We’re trying to do the best we can with the Reds.”
Said Boras: “Part of a sports league is disparity. There’s always a Goliath, and there’s always a David in every sports league. I don’t care what league it is. I don’t care whether you have salary caps or not. It’s always been that way.
“But the one thing that’s common,” he added, “is that every ownership that was bought for $100 (million) to $200 million is now worth $2 (billion) to $3 billion.”
That’s the inescapable truth that nobody at either end of the economic spectrum in the game can deny after watching Soto’s negotiations unfold with as many as five teams still alive in the bidding into the final few days.
“It’s good for the game, good for the players,” said Seattle Mariners president Jerry DiPoto, who pitched for three big-league teams in the 1990s and whose biggest contract as a player was a two-year, $4.7 million deal.
“Obviously, it means that the game is thriving when players can achieve salaries like that.”
Especially when the guys on the management side of the game see it that way.
All of which almost certainly points to not only the possibility but also the plausibility of a billion-dollar player by the time today’s youngest stars, such as De La Cruz, reach free agency.
“You said it, not me,” DiPoto said.