This should be a pretty easy night for the College Football Playoff selection committee.
While Tennessee and Brigham Young will drop after losses on Saturday, the top five of the playoff rankings will remain the same while three teams from the SEC move up to replace the Volunteers and Cougars.
But there are still some unanswered questions heading into Tuesday night. For one, we’ll see how the committee addresses the Big 12. How far will BYU fall? Will the top-ranked team from the Big 12 come in after Boise State, and if so, what does that tell us about the opening-round bye given to the top four conference champions in the Bowl Subdivision?
Where does Tennessee land among two-loss SEC teams? Look for the Volunteers to come in near the back of the line, behind Alabama, Georgia and Mississippi despite an earlier win against the Crimson Tide. That speaks to the slim path Tennessee now has for an at-large bid.
Another factor to keep in mind is how many teams from the SEC make the rankings. With so many teams from the conference in the mix for at-large bids, the committee will lean heavily on marquee wins against ranked competition to differentiate between contenders with identical records.
These questions and more loom large heading into Tuesday night:
What about Alabama, Mississippi and Georgia?
All three should move up two spots from a week ago. The one potential catch is Georgia’s win, which might lead the committee to reconsider the head-to-head results that governed last Tuesday’s rankings. Another factor in Georgia’s favor is a schedule that might be the toughest of any playoff contender. But doing so would ignore the way the Rebels dominated the Bulldogs two weeks ago. Here’s how the top four in the SEC should look: No. 3 Texas, No. 8 Alabama, No. 9 Georgia, No. 10 Mississippi.
Will Brigham Young come in behind Boise State?
Almost definitely. No. 6 last Tuesday, the Cougars should land no higher than No. 13, one spot or more behind Boise State, after losing 17-13 to Kansas. There are two main reasons to expect a significant drop. The first is a schedule that has just three wins against bowl teams. One of those wins, to Kansas State, has lust some luster with the Wildcats’ struggles in November. Another factor is the lack of game control in Big 12 wins against Oklahoma State and Utah, two teams ranked at the bottom of the conference standings.
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And does that mean a first-round bye for Boise?
It may look that way as of Tuesday night, but hanging onto that fourth spot among FBS conference champions won’t be easy. Boise State’s issue is the inability to add another marquee win before the end of the regular season. The Broncos face Wyoming and Oregon State to end this month and are currently slated to meet Colorado State for the Mountain West title. Getting UNLV instead of the Rams would help but wouldn’t be enough to fend off the Big 12 champion, especially if that’s BYU or Colorado.
Is the Big 12 looking like a one-bid league?
Barring unforeseeable chaos in the Big Ten and SEC, the Big 12 champion will be the league’s only playoff representative. Given that the Wildcats and Iowa State have dropped out of the picture, that was probably going to be the case even had BYU run the table; the loss to the Jayhawks only confirms that the conference championship game will be a winner-take-all matchup. The Cougars will reach the title game with a win this weekend against Arizona State. Colorado needs to get past KU and then beat Oklahoma State.
How many teams from the SEC?
There will be at least one fewer than the nine from a week ago after LSU lost to Florida. The number could be seven if the committee drops Missouri, which was No. 23 last Tuesday but lost in the final seconds to South Carolina. That sort of competitive loss to a ranked opponent typically doesn’t result in a big drop, however, so the Tigers should hold onto a spot somewhere around last week’s ranking. Another factor helping Missouri is the total lack of viable replacements from the rest of the Power Four.
The best bet is for there to be eight teams from the SEC in this order: the Longhorns, Tide, Bulldogs, Rebels, Tennessee, Texas A&M, the Gamecocks and Missouri.