Prepare yourself for the possibility of an eight-way tie atop the SEC standings.
It’s not even that hard to imagine. This is all it would take:
First, No. 10 Georgia beats No. 4 Tennessee on Saturday. Second, one of No. 3 Texas and No. 15 Texas A&M loses once before then winning the rivalry game to end November. Then, all of No. 9 Alabama, No. 11 Mississippi, No. 22 LSU and Missouri win out.
And there you have it: An eight-way tie that represents the most chaotic conference race in the history of the Power Four.
In this case, the conference championship game would be a rematch between Alabama and LSU, since the SEC would break the tie by relying on the combined winning percentage of all conference opponents.
This is the kind of stuff we’re dealing with in trying to determine how the Power Four will unfold the rest of the way. With three weeks left, here’s where each conference stands:
ACC
Contenders: No. 13 SMU (5-0), No. 16 Clemson (6-1), No. 12 Miami (5-1), Pittsburgh (3-2).
Miami still has an edge over Clemson despite losing to Georgia Tech. If both teams finish with one loss, the Hurricanes will advance to the ACC championship game by virtue of their win against Louisville. The Tigers lost to the Cardinals earlier this month. That leaves Clemson rooting for Miami to lose to Wake Forest or Syracuse, which would hand the Tigers sole possession of second place.
SMU has a one-game lead on the field with three games left to play: Boston College, Virginia and California. The Mustangs could lose once and remain ahead of Clemson, again because of a win against Louisville.
Pittsburgh is still alive in the ACC hunt, if only by a fingernail. First, the Panthers have to beat Clemson, Louisville and Boston College, the last two on the road. Then, they’d need Miami to lose once or SMU to lose twice. The tiebreaker in the case of this three-way tie would be conference opponents’ winning percentage, a metric that favors the Panthers.
Pittsburgh’s past and future ACC opponents are currently 26-19, well ahead of Miami (18-28) and SMU (18-29).
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Big 12
Contenders: No. 8 Brigham Young (6-0), No. 20 Colorado (5-1), No. 25 Iowa State (4-2), No. 19 Kansas State (4-2), Arizona State (4-2).
BYU has ample room for error with three games remaining in conference play. The Cougars could even lose twice and make the championship game should Kansas State win out, which would eliminate Iowa State and Arizona State. BYU would then play Colorado because of a head-to-head win against K-State.
Colorado is in by winning out against Utah, Kansas and Oklahoma State. The Buffaloes can drop one and meet BYU should Kansas State also lose, negating the Wildcats’ head-to-head tiebreaker. Conversely, the Wildcats need to win out, eliminating Iowa State and Arizona State and have Colorado lose.
Arizona State has sneaked into the conversation and has better odds that you might expect with games ahead against BYU, Kansas State and rival Arizona. Winning out would erase the Wildcats from consideration. If Colorado loses once and both teams are tied for second behind the Cougars, the eventual tiebreaker between the pair would be the record of the next highest-placed common opponent. In this case, the Sun Devils would advance because of a win against Kansas State.
Big Ten
Contenders: No. 1 Oregon (7-0), No. 6 Indiana (7-0), No. 2 Ohio State (5-1), No. 5 Penn State (5-1).
The Big Ten race is the easiest to decode in the Power Four. Oregon is a virtual lock for the championship game ahead of games against Wisconsin and Washington; the Ducks would essentially have to lose both to be eliminated, which is possible but highly unlikely.
Indiana would face the Ducks with a win next weekend against Ohio State. The Hoosiers could even lose to Purdue to end November, since beating the Buckeyes would give them a common-opponent edge over Penn State. OSU would advance with a win against Indiana barring a collapse the following Saturday against Michigan.
Penn State needs help. The Nittany Lions would first need to beat Purdue, Minnesota and Maryland. Next, Ohio State has to beat Indiana but lose to Michigan. That would leave PSU and IU with the same overall record and the same record against common opponents, leaving the Big Ten to break the tie by comparing the combined records of each team’s conference opponents. As of now, Penn State’s conference opponents are a combined 24-34 while Indiana’s are 21-36.
SEC
Contenders: Tennessee (5-1), Texas A&M (5-1), Texas (4-1), Georgia (5-2), Mississippi (4-2), Alabama (4-2), LSU (3-2), Missouri (3-2).
Madness is going to ensue in the SEC and cause pain, aggravation and frustration for everyone involved.
In a perfect world, Tennessee beats Georgia and Vanderbilt and meets the winner of Texas and Texas A&M. If everyone takes care of business elsewhere, that will leave the Volunteers and the Longhorns or Aggies as the only SEC teams with one conference loss. A&M also takes on Auburn while Texas faces Arkansas and Kentucky.
Georgia is in dire straits even with a win against the Volunteers because the Bulldogs don’t own the tiebreaker with Mississippi and Alabama. One path to Atlanta requires winning out while both the Rebels and Crimson Tide lose once. Another requires winning out, one of the Tide and Rebels losing once and Texas losing to the Razorbacks or Wildcats but beating A&M. In that scenario, the Bulldogs owns the head-to-head tiebreaker against the Longhorns and gets the chance to avenge one of this year’s losses.
All Alabama really needs to control its destiny is for Georgia to win on Saturday. In the case where Texas A&M and Texas are in sole ownership of first place and there’s a logjam of two-loss teams, the Crimson Tide rise to the top because of last weekend’s win against LSU and by comparing the combined winning percentage of all conference opponents.
Arkansas might even hold the key to determining the makeup of the SEC championship game. Let’s consider a scenario where Texas wins out and Georgia beats Tennessee, leaving the Longhorns in first place and six teams in a tie for second. If the Razorbacks then beat Missouri in the season finale, LSU would have the best opponents’ winning percentage by a hair ahead of the Crimson Tide.