- Texas’s victory over No. 3 Texas A&M has complicated the College Football Playoff selection process.
- The Longhorns’ 9-3 record and tough schedule present a strong case, despite losses to teams like Florida.
- Rejecting Texas could discourage teams from scheduling difficult nonconference opponents in the future.
The College Football Playoff committee just got a tummy ache, and not from eating too many Thanksgiving leftovers. No. 16 Texas strained the committee’s bracket by gobbling up No. 3 Texas A&M, 27-17.
The crowded bubble just gained another team.
Texas’ second-half dominance of the Aggies should force the committee to look at the Longhorns with fresh eyes.
‘We were physical. We were tough,’ Sarkisian said on ABC afterward.
On this night, Texas (9-3) resembled a playoff-caliber team.
Arch Manning makes enough big plays, Marcel Reed struggles
Boy, imagine the retraction the New York Times must consider if Arch Manning and Texas qualify for the playoff. Weeks ago, the Gray Lady questioned whether Manning is the first flop in college football history. Holy hyperbole!
Manning didn’t play great in this one, but he outplayed Texas A&M’s Marcel Reed, whose longshot Heisman Trophy hopes went poof. Reed threw two interceptions. Manning supplied two touchdowns.
Jekyll-and-Hyde Texas remains good at home, and vulnerable on the road.
I’m not convinced Texas is a top-10 team, and it will need to be ranked among the committee’s 10-best teams to earn an at-large bid.
I am convinced that if Texas had scheduled a home game against Slappy University in Week 1 instead of a road game against defending national champion Ohio State, the committee would believe Texas is a top-10 team.
Because, with a win against Slappy U. replacing a 14-7 loss against the Buckeyes, Texas would be 10-2.
And a 10-2 record that culminated with a win against previously undefeated Texas A&M would equal a playoff bid.
‘It would be a disservice to our sport if this team’s not a playoff team, when we went and scheduled that non-conference game (at Ohio State),’ Sarkisian said. ‘Because, if we’re a 10-2 team, that’s not a question.’
Therein lies the pitfall in the committee rejecting Texas.
Rejecting the Longhorns because of their record would warn teams against scheduling tough non-conference opponents. Unless the committee changes its ways, the juice of scheduling tough non-conference opponents simply isn’t worth the squeeze, unfortunately.
Does Texas win strain Notre Dame for CFP bracket?
If Texas isn’t a playoff team, then what’s Texas A&M? The Aggies have a better record than Texas, but an inferior schedule.
Texas A&M is in no real danger of missing the playoff, though. The Aggies (11-1) beat committee darling Notre Dame, and although their schedule doesn’t grade as tough as Texas’ compilation, it’s no joke.
The playoff committee has spoken on the great Notre Dame-Miami debate, but now it needs to consider a Notre Dame-Texas debate. The Irish don’t match Texas’ number of quality wins. The Irish failed to beat Texas A&M. The Irish, though, have a better record than Texas, and they didn’t lose to eight-loss Florida.
And that’s where Texas gets tripped up. Qualifying for the playoff revolves around a three-step process.
1. Never lose.
2. If you must lose, don’t lose to bad teams.
3. If you must lose to good teams, don’t get blown out.
Texas lost to a team with a 3-8 record. It lost one too many times. And it got blown out by Georgia, even if the game was close for three quarters.
The Longhorns wouldn’t win a beauty pageant, and, at 9-3, they’d be the first three-loss at-large qualifier in playoff history. Those are a pair of warts, considering the committee usually defaults to record in the rankings, and a team’s subjective “eye test” wields big influence on the committee.
Texas aces neither the eye test nor the record test.
‘Is that what college football is about, to not play anybody and just have a good record?” Sarkisian said.
Unfortunately for Sarkisian and Texas, that’s usually what college football is about: Win the beauty pageant and build a premier record, no matter how meek the schedule.
But, if the playoff is to become an exercise of rewarding teams that can beat other top teams, then Texas should be in the field. The Longhorns own wins against three teams that are ranked in the top 15 of the most recent CFP rankings. If it’s to be about valuing strength of record and strength of schedule, Texas fares well in that conversation, too.
If it’s mostly an exercise of win-loss record, then Slappy U. is going to stay awfully busy with scheduling requests.
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network’s senior national college football columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer.