When the calendar turns to November then you know it is down to the nitty gritty in the College Football Playoff race.
The stakes are higher. The pressure is ramped. It creates unexpected results that look like major surprises. But should we be surprised? This happens every season. Mississippi fell to Florida and Miami got tripped up against Syracuse last year. Both missed the field. In 2022, No. 5 Tennessee was blown out by unranked South Carolina on the penultimate weekend of the regular season.
This weekend shapes up to have more potential surprises that wreck playoff hopes. Could it be Ohio State again? Or Mississippi? Or maybe another contender like Georgia Tech or Texas Tech?
That’s why the USA TODAY Sports college football staff is here to provide some answers to the difficult questions. Matt Hayes, Jordan Mendoza, Paul Myerberg, Erick Smith, Eddie Timanus and Blake Toppmeyer weigh in with their bold predictions for Week 10 of the college football season.
Kansas State pulls of upset of Texas Tech
Kansas State is hot. It has won three of four – all by double figures. QB Avery Johnson is playing his best ball, and the Wildcats can save the season with a win over suddenly shaky Texas Tech. The Red Raiders do get Behren Morton back, but the trip to Manhattan ends up with a second Big 12 loss that could knock them out of the conference title game and College Football Playoff. —Matt Hayes
Texas shuts down Vanderbilt hype
It was a memorable weekend in Nashville with Vanderbilt beating Missouri to assert itself as a contender in the SEC race. Unfortunately, that momentum is going to a halt in Austin. While it won last week, Vanderbilt’s offense was rather rough to watch, and the Texas defense is too skilled to let the Commodores get any real rhythm going. Diego Pavia struggles, and it doesn’t matter who is under center for the Longhorns as they get a top 10 victory. — Jordan Mendoza
Run of luck ends for Virginia at Cal
Virginia has already survived a bunch of close calls in getting to 7-1 and the top of the ACC. But the magic runs out in a narrow loss at Cal that drops the Cavaliers down a peg in the league and playoff races. This would be a huge win for Cal, which looks to secure bowl eligibility and set up the program’s first winning season since 2019. And it wouldn’t be too painful a setback for the Cavaliers, who would still be among the favorites to reach the ACC title game. — Paul Myerberg
Georgia Tech falls from ranks of the unbeatens
The Yellow Jackets have played three road games. Each has been a narrow victory with some good fortune aiding them. At some point that luck may run out. Odds are it happens this weekend at North Carolina State. The Wolfpack have been in a rut, losing four of their last five. Their backs are to the wall if they want to make the postseason. And it’s also a situation where Tech is overconfident. Look for the team with the greater emotion and urgency to prevail in another close road came for the Jackets. — Erick Smith
Penn State will put scare into Ohio State
Remember way back in the ancient history of two months ago when we all thought Ohio State-Penn State was going to be the headliner of an epic Nov. 1 slate of college football games? Funny thing, reality.
But here’s the thing – there’s still talent in that Penn State locker room, especially on the defensive side of the ball. The Buckeyes have a slew of big-play threats, but it has taken them a while to get their offense cranked up on several occasions this season.
Make no mistake – the Nittany Lions are not winning this game. They won’t have any answers for Ohio State’s brick wall of a defense. But don’t be shocked if the margin is still only a score or two after halftime. — Eddie Timanus
Mississippi set for scare against South Carolina
Shy of the king of England, Lane Kiffin could have just about any job he wants right now. Sounds just a bit distracting. Distracting enough for Mississippi to lose to South Carolina? Not quite, but I’m expecting this to be much more tense than the large betting spread would otherwise indicate. The Rebels gravitate toward one-possession games, even against inferior opponents. Ole Miss survives this one, barely, and Kiffin googles afterward how many blue-chip prospects live in Louisiana and Florida. — Blake Toppmeyer