Let’s take a quick history lesson – very, very recent history lesson – before trying to peg how the Big 12 will play out in 2025.
Last year’s official preseason poll had the eventual conference champion, Arizona State, ranked 16th out of 16 teams. The preseason favorite, Utah, went 2-7 in Big 12 play. The team picked third last July, Oklahoma State, went winless.
We were promised unpredictability in this expanded, new-look Big 12, and the conference definitely delivered.
Looking ahead to this season, it’s easy to point to six or seven (or more) teams capable of winning the conference and earning a College Football Playoff bid. There is Arizona State, of course, and annual contenders such as Kansas State and Iowa State. Baylor is on the national radar. Brigham Young is fresh off a breakout season, albeit with quarterback questions.
But choosing which team rises to the top of the conference standings still feels like a fool’s errand. With media days set for Tuesday and Wednesday, here’s how USA TODAY Sports picks the Big 12 to unfold:
1. Arizona State
There are 17 returning starters, including a rising star in quarterback Sam Leavitt, and some major momentum after last year’s explosive growth under coach Kenny Dillingham. But there is one huge loss in running back Cam Skattebo, who carried the Sun Devils for much of his final season. How they replace that production will go a long way toward determining whether the Sun Devils can repeat.
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2. Kansas State
Avery Johnson has to take the next step in his development for the Wildcats to reclaim the Big 12 title belt. He’ll get a big boost in the backfield from do-everything running back Dylan Edwards. If Kansas State can recapture last year’s pass rush and its receiver corps helps Johnson develop, this could easily be a playoff team.
3. Baylor
The Bears are ready to roll on offense with an experienced front and a top passer in Sawyer Robertson, though the receiver group needs Alabama transfer Kobe Prentice to step up on the outside. Where Baylor could be even better in 2025 is on defense. Five returning starters are joined by a transfer group that include Travion Barnes (Florida International) to form a unit that could be one of the league’s best.
4. Iowa State
Locking in on two or three new receivers for quarterback Rocco Becht will be the biggest key to fall camp for the Cyclones are losing last year’s top targets to the NFL. Transfers Chase Sowell and Xavier Townsend are expected to pick up a huge chunk of that lost production. Defensively, Iowa State is extremely well-coached but will not have a ton of room for error given losses up front and in the secondary. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Cyclones notch 10-plus wins in back-to-back years for the first time in program history.
5. Utah
The Utes are in a bit of a reboot mode after slumping way down the Big 12 ladder as preseason favorites in 2024. The biggest change comes by way of New Mexico: Kyle Whittingham hired Lobos offensive coordinator, Jason Beck, and then landed quarterback Devin Dampier in the portal. Dampier brings a new dimension to the Utes’ style with his running ability; he’s likely the most impactful transfer in the Big 12. In potentially Whittingham’s final year, whether the Utes rebound will come down to how quickly the offense hits its stride and if the team can avoid another rash of injuries.
6. Texas Tech
An eye-popping transfer class holds the key to Texas Tech’s season. There are some major additions, including maybe the best overall defender in the portal in edge rusher David Bailey (Stanford). He’s part of an overhaul of the defensive front. There are other additions on offense that could help quarterback Behren Morton play with more consistency. That’ll be needed for the Red Raiders to crack through eight wins and become a national factor.
7. TCU
The two big questions ask whether TCU has amassed the help at receiver to offset losses to the NFL and if the Horned Frogs will have the bodies in the secondary to run with Big 12 offenses. If so, this is a definite sleeper team with quarterback Josh Hoover leading the offense capable of making another unexpected march to the playoff. If not, TCU will win its share of shootouts but isn’t built to win the conference.
8. Houston
This is a program on an upswing under second-year coach Willie Fritz. After leaning on the defense last year, the Cougars look to be more offense-focused with new quarterback Connor Weigman (Texas A&M) and new coordinator Slade Nagle, who held the same job under Fritz at Tulane. With the defense expected to take a step back, the other side of the ball will help deliver a bowl berth.
9. Kansas
The Jayhawks look to carry over a really strong second half of last season and get back into the postseason, if not earn a spot in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll. One reason for optimism is the health of veteran quarterback Jalon Daniels. The Jayhawks lost a ton of experience, though, and coach Lance Leipold will need to dig into his bag of tricks to get his lineup in order before September.
10. Colorado
The Buffaloes lose some high-profile star power from last year’s nine-wins quad, namely quarterback Shedeur Sanders and Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter. While it will be hard to match that win total, the foundation has been set to win at least six or seven games and factor into the Big 12 race. Sophomore left tackle Jordan Seaton is a likely All-America pick.
11. Brigham Young
The outlook for BYU changed quickly. The Cougars have become much more of a wild card with would-be starting quarterback Jake Retzlaff’s departure. That changes the complexion of the offense and, combined with a ton of attrition on the defensive side, makes it very hard to picture the Cougars remaining in the playoff picture into November.
12. Cincinnati
While way off the pace set by the league’s best, Cincinnati seems better constructed heading into coach Scott Satterfield’s third year and ready to avoid the extended losing streaks that defined 2023 and 2024. The front six on defense looks good, though transfers will determine the secondary. There’s experience at quarterback and a nice group of tight ends on offense, though the receiver corps looks spotty.
13. Oklahoma State
Who knows what the Cowboys will bring to the table in 2025. After a nightmarish year, Mike Gundy completely rebuilt his coaching staff, brought in a pair of new quarterbacks and basically redid the Cowboys’ roster with transfers. His track record remains strong despite last season’s step back, so maybe Gundy still deserves the benefit of the doubt.
14. Central Florida
Scott Frost is back in Orlando after a failed stint at Nebraska and a few years off the sidelines. He’s clearly very comfortable at UCF and will have the runway to build a Big 12 contender. (In other words, no one is expecting another winless-to-unbeaten jump in two years.) The roster was decimated by the transfer portal and there is no sure thing among a group of potential quarterbacks, so patience will be needed.
15. West Virginia
WVU turned back the clock even farther than UCF by bringing back Rich Rodriguez, the architect of one of the finest stretches in program history before his departure for Michigan. While his return sparks high long-term hopes for the Mountaineers, this team is thin and inexperienced. For now, the roster just isn’t there for Rodriguez to turn things around from day one.
16. Arizona
There’s a pretty negative perception of Arizona’s program just one year into the Brent Brennan era, after last season’s team opened the year in the Top 25 before running aground in league play. There are some things to like, including quarterback Noah Fifita, but the Wildcats were wrecked by attrition and will need multiple Championship Subdivision transfers to hit to avoid another putrid finish.