A static top four in this week’s College Football Playoff rankings will be followed by a series of key decisions involving one-, two- and three-loss teams.
Maybe the biggest debate will be between Boise State and Indiana following the Hoosiers’ 38-15 loss at Ohio State. That the loss was uncompetitive in the second half could be very damaging to Indiana’s playoff hopes given a weak résumé consisting of just three wins against bowl teams.
The playoff selection committee will also deliberate over how to rank a handful of three-loss SEC teams, led by Alabama and South Carolina. Where the Crimson Tide land will determine whether they are still a playoff candidate despite Saturday’s loss to Oklahoma.
Another key topic of conversation will be in the Big 12, where losses by Brigham Young and Colorado have tossed the conference race into total anarchy.
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Those questions and more set the tone for Tuesday night’s rankings:
Will Indiana be ahead of Boise State?
Indiana’s highest ranking would be No. 10. With the top four unchanged, the Hoosiers would drop at least behind Notre Dame, Miami, Georgia, Tennessee and SMU. There’s also a good chance they come in behind Boise State despite the Broncos’ less-than-impressive 17-13 win against Wyoming last week. Based on this year’s playoff rankings, Boise’s two best wins (UNLV and Washington State) would be seen much more favorably than Indiana’s wins against Washington and Michigan.
Where the Hoosiers land on Tuesday night is extremely important for their at-large hopes, since the eventual Big 12 champion is likely assured a playoff bid and will eject the lowest-ranked at-large team from the final top 12. Coming in at No. 11 would raise the possibility that Indiana ends the regular season with just that one loss to Ohio State but ends up as the first team out of the field.
Will it be Alabama, South Carolina, Mississippi or Texas A&M?
Look for Alabama to come in first among this foursome of three-loss SEC teams. Look for this group to be bunched together after Indiana and Boise State and before a similar run of teams from the Big 12. Mississippi is in dire straits after losing to Florida and has a very flimsy chance at an-large bid. The Aggies’ only hope is to beat Texas this weekend and then upset Georgia to win the SEC. South Carolina is a very interesting off-the-radar contender. While the Gamecocks will be behind Alabama this week, they close the regular season with the rivalry against Clemson and would leapfrog the Tide with a win.
Is the ACC in position for two playoff bids?
Things are really looking up for the ACC if Miami and SMU close out November with wins against Syracuse and California, respectively. If so, the ACC title game would be a matchup of top-10 teams with just one loss. In the case of a narrow Miami win, for example, SMU could point to an unbeaten regular season in league play and two close losses to ranked teams. In fact, the ACC could even have three teams in the playoff debate if the Hurricanes and Mustangs meet with just one loss apiece: the winner of that game, the loser and two-loss Clemson, if the Tigers can beat South Carolina.
How will things look in the Big 12?
Chaotic and messy, for starters. The projected pecking order will be Arizona State, Brigham Young, Colorado and then Iowa State, but all four will be outside the top 15 and behind those three-loss SEC teams. The Big 12 continues to be the only Power Four league set to send just one team into the playoff, with that representative hinging on which pair comes out on top this weekend and meets for the conference title. It’ll be Arizona State against Iowa State should all four contenders win on Saturday.
Will Army fall out of the rankings?
The American Athletic champion will be the Group of Five representative if Boise fails to win the Mountain West. Whether Army remains in the rankings following a 49-14 loss to Notre Dame matters for Tulane, however, because of the possibility the AAC winner finishes higher than the eventual Big 12 champion and earns an opening-round bye. The combination of a three-loss team atop the Big 12 and a ranked win against the Black Knights might be enough to make the Green Wave the fourth-best conference champion.