The hot-stove season has been frigid once again, unless you’re fascinated by minor-league signings, the non-tender deadline and reports about free agent Juan Soto’s favorite dining spots in Southern California.
The biggest free-agent signing until Yusei Kikuchi’s three-year, $63 million deal Monday with the Los Angeles Angels was the two-year, $12 million contract for part-time catcher Travis d’Arnaud signed, also with the Angels.
The biggest trade was the Cincinnati Reds-Kanas City Royals swap of infielder Jonathan India and outfielder Joey Wiemer for pitcher Brady Singer.
But in conversations and interviews with general managers, executives and agents the past week, they are boldly predicting that the hot stove is about to become enflamed after Thanksgiving, with a flurry of trades, and marquee free agent signings filling the days and nights at the annual baseball winter meetings beginning Dec. 8 in Dallas.
“It’s not going to be like a year ago when the winter meetings were an embarrassment,’ one prominent agent said. “Nothing happened… This year is different. Everyone is much more aggressive, or at least they’re acting like it.’
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The same mantra is being repeated by teams and executives, saying that all but perhaps just the Chicago White Sox and Miami Marlins have playoff dreams dancing in their heads. But there’s a question they are all asking among themselves.
“Who has the money, and who doesn’t?’ one GM said. “Everyone is talking a big game, but no one really knows for sure. We’re about to find out.’
Now that Thanksgiving is around the corner, and the the winter meetings on the horizon: here are the top nine swirling topics of conversation:
1. Juan Soto free agent sweepstakes
Owners and general managers are convinced that Soto will sign his mega-contract perhaps no later than the conclusion of the winter meetings. This won’t be a repeat case of 2019 when Bryce Harper and Manny Machado patiently waited until their markets blossomed in spring training, or last winter when the money that was there in December evaporated in February.
There really are only four teams that are seriously in play for Soto: The Mets, the Yankees, the Toronto Blue Jays and the Boston Red Sox.
The Los Angeles Dodgers just won a World Series without Soto, and it wasn’t much of an inconvenience to drive through traffic across town, and meet with Soto and agent Scott Boras. The meeting helps perhaps drives the price up for Soto, and even more important, puts a little pressure on outfielder Teoscar Hernandez into re-signing with them.
Oh, and after all of speculation that the Philadelphia Phillies are involved in the Soto sweepstakes?
They haven’t had a single conversation with Boras to express interest in Soto.
The Mets are the clear-cut favorite, executives say, simply because they don’t believe there’s a soul who will outbid owner Steve Cohen, while Yankees have a price in mind that they don’t want to exceed.
The Blue Jays could be the sleeper, but with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette eligible for free agency in a year, Toronto would have to dramatically beat the Mets’ offer to have a prayer.
2. Boston Red Sox talk a big game
No one is boasting about their plans to suddenly spend money and dive into the deepest end of the free-agent waters more than Red Sox.
They have missed the playoffs three consecutive years, finishing last five times since 2014, and now are shouting to the world that they want to spend with the big boys, and plan to be involved in the bidding for all of the top free agents.
This is why they met with Soto, told everyone how well it went, and informed agents that they not only want to sign one of the marquee free-agent pitchers in Corbin Burnes, Max Fried and Blake Snell, but actually want to sign two. They are adamant on signing at least one lefty between Fried and Snell.
The Red Sox also have strong interest in All-Star free-agent shortstop Willy Adames, who is willing to move to third base. They have scheduled an upcoming meeting and have internally discussed moving Rafael Devers off third base. They could also sign free agent Alex Bregman or trade for St. Louis Cardinals All-Star third baseman Nolan Arenado.
They would love to free up even more money by dumping outfielder Masataka Yoshida, but are finding limited demand with the three years, $55.6 million left on his contract.
“They have been so outspoken about their intentions,’ one GM said, “there’s no way you talk that way unless you’re absolutely sure you’re signing one of those guys. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see them announce they’ve got one of those guys pretty soon. They’re pretty confident.’
3. Rōki Sasaki rumors
Where else can you find an elite 23-year-old pitcher, whose sheer talent reminds scouts of a healthy Jacob deGrom, that will cost you no more than an international signing bonus?
The Dodgers have been the heavy favorites to land Sasaki for the past year, where teams are convinced it’s almost a fait accompli. But with Sasaki’s agent Joel Wolfe, vehemently denying there is a deal in place – and Sasaki expected to wait until after the Jan. 15 posting period – maybe someone else has an actual chance.
The team that is quietly confident they have a realistic shot is the San Diego Padres with veteran starter Yu Darvish being a mentor and close friend of Sasaki’s.
Does Sasaki go to San Diego where he could become their ace and perhaps lead the Padres to their first World Series title in franchise history, or head to the riches of Los Angeles where he might be only the third most popular Japanese player on the team behind Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto?
4. San Diego Padres desperate to win now
Say hello to the Padres. San Diego shaved $90 million off its payroll last season yet finished one victory away from beating the Dodgers in the NLDS to perhaps become the World Series favorite.
They have have to win this year or it could soon turn ugly in America’s Finest City.
The Padres, who shoved in most of their prospect chips to go for it last year, now are faced with massive player raises and two of their top starters entering the final year of their contracts.
Dylan Cease and Michael King each are free agents after this season, and with all of the club’s other bloated contracts, San Diego may have little chance to keep the pitchers.
They need a deep October run, if not a World Series appearance, to provide an extra influx of cash after maxing out their revenue in ticket sales and TV.
Here’s what they’re facing going forward:
Manny Machado: He has nine years, $334 million left on his contract, earning $13 million this year, $21 million in 2026, and then $35 million in 2027-2033.
Fernando Tatis: He has 10 years, $306 million left on his contract, earning $20 million this year, $20 million in 2026, $25 million in 2027-208, and $36 million in 2029-2034.
Xander Bogaerts: He has nine years, $225 million left, earning $25 million a year through 2033.
“That’s scary to think about,’ one executive said. “They’ve got some big-time financial commitments. That could get real ugly.’
5. Chicago Cubs: Driving agents crazy
The Cubs, whose 2016-era championship window closed abruptly, are a cash cow with one of the largest markets in baseball. Yet, instead of negotiating with any of the marquee free agents, they instead are focusing on the mid-market players. They’re probably out on Soto, Burnes, Fried and Snell.
The only thing that could change their plan is if they’re able to unload first baseman/outfielder Cody Bellinger.
The worst-kept secret at the GM meetings was the Cubs offering Bellinger to anyone and everyone. So far, no team has expressed strong interest.
“Come on,’ one GM said, “who’s going to touch that contract? The risk is just too great for the production.’
Bellinger, 29, hit .266 with 18 homers and 78 RBI last season with a .751 OPS. The trouble is that he’s owed $27.5 million this year – $1.5 million more than Bryce Harper – and has a $25 million or $5 million buyout if he opts out of his 2026 contract. So, he’s guaranteed a minimum of $32.5 million through 2025 and $52.5 million if he stays through 2026.
If the Cubs are able to move Bellinger, they likely would have to eat money in the deal or assume another similar contract.
6. Philadelphia Phillies: Contender could shake things up
The Phillies, who have reached the postseason three consecutive years, and improved their win total in a full season six years in a row, realize that something needs to change to reach their ultimate goal of their first World Series title since 2008.
Simply, their lineup is too easy for opposing pitchers to navigate, and the Phillies need to shake it up.
They have been shopping outfielder Nick Castellanos for nearly two years and now are making third baseman Alec Bohm available.
They have spoken about Bohm and outfield prospect Justin Crawford in extensive trade talks with the Chicago White Sox for starter Garrett Crochet, but the White Sox are concerned with Bohm’s struggles the second half, posting a .681 OPS with just four home runs.
If the Phillies trade Bohm, they are expected to make a strong play for Alex Bregman, whose talent and personality would fit in perfectly with the team, or perhaps sign Willy Adames and move him over to third base.
The Phillies are starting to age with their best and highest-paid players in their 30s and catcher J.T. Realmuto in the final season of his five-year, $115.5 million contract.
7. Luis Robert Jr.: Biggest gamble on the trade market
The White Sox will definitely trade ace Garrett Crochet this winter, but before they move him, they’d love to unload Robert.
Robert, 27, is a huge talent that prompted the White Sox to give him a six-year, $50 million contract five years ago, but he has never lived up to the hype.
He simply can’t stay healthy. Robert has played more than 100 games in just one of his five seasons, and now will be earning $15 million in sixth and final season.
Yet, if you gamble on Robert, and win, you’ll have the option of picking up his club option of $20 million in 2026 and again in 2027.
“The guy is certainly intriguing,’ one GM said, “but they’ve got a really high price tag on him. You’ve got to hope he finally stays healthy and can be the player everyone envisioned all along. But the White Sox are acting like he’s some big star center fielder and are asking for your top prospects.’
8. Toronto Blue Jays: Most likely to overpay
The Blue Jays, the American League’s most underachieving team in recent years, reaching the postseason three times but failing to win a playoff game since 2016, have to win this year or heads could roll.
This is a critical year with president Mark Shapiro in the final year of his contract, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette in the final year before free agency.
They will have no choice but to overpay free agents with players well aware that Guerrero and Bichette could be gone. This is why no one believes Soto is coming their way unless they dramatically outbid the Mets.
They will have to make easily the highest offer if they’re successful in landing in Burnes or Fried, along with outfielder Anthony Santander, whom they badly covet.
The danger is avoiding being used by agents simply to drive up the price tag – as the San Francisco Giants found out in in recent years.
9. MLB rumors: What I’m hearing
– If the New York Yankees don’t re-sign Juan Soto, one back-up plan floating around is signing free-agent first baseman Christian Walker, sign either Willy Adames or Alex Bregman to play third, shift Jazz Chisholm to second base, trade for Cubs center fielder Cody Bellinger, and then use the extra money to sign Burnes, Fried or Snell.
– The Houston Astros would love to have Alex Bregman back on a six-year deal worth about $156 million, but Bregman is seeking a deal worth at least $200 million.
– The St. Louis Cardinals are planning to reload – but not completely rebuild – with Nolan Arenado the only high-priced player they are shopping. Arenado has three years, $52 million remaining in his contract, but the Colorado Rockies are responsible for $4 million each of the final three seasons.
– The Baltimore Orioles, after being bounced out of the playoffs in the first round the past two seasons, are being much more aggressive in talks with agents and clubs after their passive trade deadline approach in 2024.
– The Milwaukee Brewers plan to hang onto closer Devin Williams until at least the All-Star break and will re-evaluate whether to keep him or trade him.
– The (Sacramento) Athletics plan to spend money, increasing their payroll to about $100 million, keeping owners and the players association off their back with the revenue sharing money they receive.
– The Brewers would love to find a way to get former Cardinals All-Star first baseman Paul Goldschmidt on their roster, and would have been all-in if first baseman Rhys Hoskins had opted out of his contract.
– Teams have been appalled at the high price tag for the second-tier free-agent market, with players seeking at least $20 million a year for multiyear deals..
– The Arizona Diamondbacks are shopping starter Jordan Montgomery, and listening to offers on outfielders Jake McCarthy and Alek Thomas.
– Teams believe that the Reds’ payroll will rise considering their investment in manager Terry Francona.
– The Dodgers, who won the World Series with only three healthy starters, are pursuing at least one top-tiered free agent starter even with Shohei Ohtani, Tyler Glasnow, Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin and Clayton Kershaw all expected to join Yamamoto in the rotation this year.
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