Georgia will rise in this week’s College Football Playoff rankings at Tennessee’s expense, while Brigham Young should fall behind Boise State after Saturday night’s loss to Kansas.
The playoff selection committee already established the value of head-to-head results in sorting through two-loss SEC teams. Despite last weekend’s 31-17 win against the Volunteers, don’t look for the Bulldogs to move back ahead of Alabama and Mississippi.
BYU was No. 6 in last week’s rankings but should drop seven or more spots after losing 17-13 to Kansas. While the Cougars would very likely leapfrog Boise State should they beat Colorado to win the Big 12, that the Broncos will be ahead in Tuesday night’s rankings suggests a Group of Five team could earn an opening-round playoff bye.
Don’t look for any changes in the top five after Oregon survived a scare against Wisconsin. Teams behind the Volunteers and Cougars a week ago should just take two-spot leaps up the rankings, making this one of the simpler weeks for the committee.
1. Oregon (11-0)
Oregon could’ve lost to Wisconsin and still stayed No. 1 in the rankings thanks to last month’s win against Ohio State. The 16-13 win against the Badgers was just the Ducks’ second Big Ten game decided by fewer than 21 points and the third game overall, joining the Buckeyes and a non-conference win against Boise State. That one-two punch of wins is hard to top.
2. Ohio State (9-1)
The big question going into Saturday’s matchup with Indiana is whether the Buckeyes can lose and still make the playoff. The answer is complicated at this point, since whether two-loss Ohio State is a contender depends on how things shake out in the SEC. In the case of a competitive loss, the Buckeyes would point to close games against the best teams in the Big Ten and a win against Penn State. That might be enough to get four teams from the conference into the playoff.
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3. Texas (9-1)
Texas is the top-ranked team from the SEC by virtue of being the only one-loss team in the SEC. That underscores a really important point: While in the lead at this point, a paltry résumé of wins and a weaker strength of schedule could dump the Longhorns from the driver’s seat to out of the playoff altogether with a loss to Texas A&M in the season finale.
4. Penn State (9-1)
Penn State remains in great shape for an at-large bid after rebounding from its Ohio State loss with a pair of blowout wins against Washington and Purdue. The Nittany Lions next face a big road test against Minnesota, which had won four in a row before falling to Rutgers. This seems to be the only spot that can trip them up on way to the playoff.
5. Indiana (10-0)
Let’s reverse the same question as before: Is Indiana in with a loss to Ohio State? Again, it can be complicated. A narrow loss should be enough to keep the Hoosiers in the thick of an at-large bid given that the committee clearly respects what they’ve done and how they’ve looked during this unbeaten start. But a blowout could force the committee to address a schedule that includes just one win against a team currently with a winning record.
6. Notre Dame (9-1)
That Louisville and Navy have dropped off the map isn’t great news for Notre Dame, but that should only come into play with a loss to Army or Southern California to end the year. The Irish have averaged 42.9 points per game during this active eight-game winning streak.
7. Miami (9-1)
Clemson’s win against Pittsburgh confirmed that Miami has to win out against Wake Forest and Syracuse to make the ACC championship game. Given their lack of marquee wins, the Hurricanes are not a viable at-large contender without at least playing for the conference title.
8. Alabama (8-2)
Alabama won’t move ahead of Miami after a meaningless win against Mercer. Nor will the Crimson Tide move back despite Missouri and LSU likely falling out of the rankings. Tennessee’s loss leaves the Tide in great position to play for the SEC crown should they not falter at Oklahoma and in the Iron Bowl against Auburn.
9. Mississippi (8-2)
Florida rallying against a brutal schedule is good news for the Rebels, who need to bolster their win against Georgia with victories against Power Four bowl teams. South Carolina and the Bulldogs are already locked into the postseason while Florida, Oklahoma and Arkansas are one win away from bowl eligibility.
10. Georgia (8-2)
Beating Tennessee will vault the Bulldogs back into the committee’s current bracket ahead of games against Massachusetts and Georgia Tech to end the regular season. While not likely to reach the SEC championship, Georgia could finish third in the final conference standings and host a game in the opening round.